YAMICHE ALCINDOR: The final sprint.

JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT: In a typical year, we are often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put us at risk.

This year, we are.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: With just days to go before Election Day, President Biden and Democrats make their closing appeal to voters.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you better off today than you were two years ago?

You were not making choices between heating and eating.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And Republicans focus on inflation, arguing Democrats holding onto power will hurt voters' wallets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is important that we get the right people in so that we can maintain our freedoms that we worked so hard to get.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think the country is going in absolutely the wrong direction.

Crime is up, inflation is absolutely horrible.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: But with Americans so divided, in which direction is the country is heading, next.

ANNOUNCER: Once again from Washington, Moderator Yamiche Alcindor.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Good evening and welcome to WASHINGTON WEEK.

Election Day is just four days away, and already more than 35 million Americans have voted early.

Republicans appear to have the momentum on their side as they push to have a red wave and take control of the U.S. House and maybe even the U.S. Senate.

The latest polling indicates Republicans are benefiting from voter concerns over inflation.

This all comes as each parties' heavy hitters are making their final pitch to voters in key battleground states.

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: Inflation is a real problem right now.

But the question is, who is actually going to do something about it?

Let me tell you, the Republicans talk about it, but when you press them for an answer, things get real quiet.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: This is the year we are going to take back the House, we're going to take back the Senate, and in 2024, most importantly, we are going to take back our magnificent White House, right?

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Now, Tuesday's election is the first since the January 6th Capitol attack, and many Republican candidates are still denying the outcome of the 2020 election.

That along with the violent attack on Paul Pelosi, of course, he is the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, that all lead President Biden on Wednesday to sound the alarm about threats to democracy.

JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT: We are facing a defining moment, an inflection point.

We must with one overwhelming unified voice speak as a country and say there is no place, no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America, whether it is directed at Democrats or Republicans, no place, period.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Now, Republicans were quick to criticize that speech.

Here's House Minoriy Leader Kevin McCarthy.

REP. KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CA): I listened to the president's speech.

I don't remember hearing anything about inflation, about gas, about border, about fentanyl, about crime.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Joining me now to discuss the latest on the midterms and what to expect on Tuesday night and, really, all of next week, Sahil Kapur, Senior National Political Reporter for NBC News, Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor Cook Political Reporter with Amy Walter, and joining me here at the table, Susan Page, Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today, and Jeff Zeleny, Chief National Affairs Correspondent at CNN.

So, thank you all for being here.

Now, I want to start with you, Dave, because you are Data Man, you are the man who is going to tell us.

Maybe you can tell us who won.

But I won't ask you that yet.

What I will say that the Cook Political Report, you moved, I'm going to have to get it right, at least ten House seats all held by Democrats in the tossup category.

And I want to put up a graphic for folks, if we can pull it up, please.

The graphic shows the House race.

And this is apart from the solid seats.

You have 29 lean Democrats, 24 lean Republicans and 35 tossup seats.

So, how are things looking on the House side?

I'm going to ask you about the Senate later, but I want to ask about the House side and what you are seeing.

DAVE WASSERMAN, SENIOR EDITOR, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Republicans have the advantage in the House.

There are 212 seats that we currently rate as leaning their way.

There are 188 seats that we currently rate as leaning towards Democrats then those 35 are tossups.

So, Republicans only need to win six of those 35 tossups to win the House, whereas Democrats would need 30 of the 35 to keep the House.

And Republicans have had some key advantages all along.

Not only do they have a slight enthusiasm gap, according to polls, but they benefited from redistricting, which might give them four of the five seats they need for the majority off the bat.

They've also benefited from a higher number of vulnerable Democratic open seats.

There are more Democrats retiring in the House from swing seats, 19 to just 6 for Republicans.

And then also Republicans have had a much stronger recruitment cycle with candidates than they have had in the Senate, led by Kevin McCarthy's efforts to recruit candidates who are women, minorities, veterans.

In fact, 70 percent of their Republicans in the most vulnerable districts are at least one of those things and that list of vulnerable Democrats include some pretty big names, people like Katie Porter from California, Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin and Elaine Luria, some of Democrats' national security stars.

And even the chair of Democrats Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney in New York.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: I mean, that weighs with Sean Patrick Maloney.

It's one to really watch because, of course, he's the head of the DCCC.

I want to, of course, now put up another graphic by the Cook Political Report.

This deals with the Senate side.

You have 48 Dem Senate seats, 50 GOP Senate seats, and then you have one to two tossups.

So, talk about what is going on in the Senate and what the latest is there.

DAVE WASSERMAN: Well, the Senate is really going to come down to four races, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

And Republicans need two to win two of those four to win the Senate.

Democrats would need to win three of those four to hold the Senate.

And right now, they are really, really tight.

Republicans might have the slight edge in Nevada.

But even New Hampshire is coming into play, whereas Democrats are clinging to very small leads in the polling averages in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

And Georgia really looks like a pure tossup between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.

And keep in mind, with a libertarian on the ballot in Georgia and both candidates supporting considerable negative ratings, we could be looking at a December 6 runoff potentially to decide control of the chamber.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And, Jeff, I want to come to you, because you have been out on the campaign trail, you went to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, just to name some with me able to catch my breath.

I know there are probably more states there.

You say one of the things that you are going to be watching for is split ticket voting and you are watching these places where a Senate and governor's race might determine the outcome of those races.

Talk a bit about split ticket voting and what we are seeing in the gubernatorial races and how they relate to the Senate.

JEFF ZELENY, CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, CNN: It's really interesting.

I mean, these elections don't happen in vacuums, of course.

Midterm elections play out state-by-state.

So, yes, national forces play a role, no doubt, but I'm fascinated by the governor's races and Senate races.

Now, in Pennsylvania, for example, the Democratic governor candidate, Josh Shapiro, the attorney general, he's in command of this race.

It's probably one bright spot for Democrats on the entire map of the country, the brightest spot.

Will he help John Fetterman or are voters in the mind to deliver a split ticket and vote for a Shapiro for governor and Mehmet Oz for Senate?

He's the Republican Senate candidate.

That is also possible.

I've talked to voters who are interested in that.

In Georgia, though, for example, Brian Kemp, the Republican governor, is in also a stronger position than some might have thought.

Will he help Herschel Walker?

Will he help pull him over?

It's in Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire.

So, these governor's races also are very fascinating.

Dave was just talking about New Hampshire, we really have our eye on that here as we head into this weekend because the governor, Chris Sununu, is in command of that race as well, it looks like and the Senate race is suddenly a tossup.

Will he pull the Republican candidate over the edge for Senator Maggie Hassan, the Democrat there?

They are worried about that race.

So, all of these races are sort of interconnected.

So, on election night, I will watch split ticket versus coattails.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: For sure.

It is all fascinating.

Now, this election season, a record amount of money has also been spent on campaign ads.

Here's one from Democratic Representative Elaine Luria.

REP. ELAINE LURIA (D-VA): Politics used to be about serving.

Today, it is about winning at all costs.

If you are looking for someone who will say anything, just to win, I'm not your candidate.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And here's another from Republican Senator Marco Rubio's reelection campaign.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL): The radical left will destroy America if we don't stop them.

They indoctrinate children and try to turn boys into girls.

They allow illegal aliens and drugs to flood America.

And if you speak out, they ban you on social media and they call you a racist.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Sahil, I want to come to you.

You are out in Georgia, you have been across the campaign trail as well just like Jeff and myself and others.

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what issues voters are talking to you about and how that connects to these closing arguments we are hearing in some of the ads like the ones we just played?

SAHIL KAPUR, SENIOR NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, NBC News: Right.

Well, Yamiche, I think what we just heard in those ads is the difference between someone who is running in a competitive race and needs to win the center, which is Elaine Lurai, and someone like Marco Rubio, who is quite safe in his state of Florida, which is increasingly trending toward Republicans, and he is leading the polls by a wide margin.

Now, the closing arguments we see across the country, there are very familiar themes here.

Many of the Republicans, especially on the Senate level, are running a very simple message that inflation is bad and it is the fault of President Biden and Democrats.

The reality is much less simple.

Inflation is a phenomenon around the world.

It's a global phenomenon.

It's not a uniquely American.

It is about COVID and supply chains and all these complicated things.

But you can't put that on a bumper sticker.

Republicans are betting that they can ride that disenchantment that voters have and present themselves as just kind of change party.

The Democratic closing argument is more complicated.

They are saying democracy is at risk, they say abortion is on the ballot.

If you want it to be legal, then vote Democrat.

They say Republicans don't have a plan to deal with inflation other than to cut social security and perhaps Medicare as well.

So, if you add all that up, you can see Republicans have the simple bumper sticker slogan and Democrats have this kind of scattershot series of arguments that they are trying to make.

And here in Georgia, you see that dynamic with Herschel Walker, the Senate candidate, putting a lot of money into a closing ad just trying to make the case against the Democratic-controlled Washington, whereas Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, has these series of ads trying to emphasize his bipartisan credentials, trying to talk about how he has worked with Republicans, to do things like build highways and protect farmers in the south.

And he's also featuring testimonials from various voters, from Democrats, to progressives, to center-right, to Republicans, making the case against Herschel Walker.

So, it is a more complicated phenomenon for Democrats who are pushing against the political gravity than it is for Republicans who have political gravity on their side down the stretch.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And, Susan, that gravity, I think, metaphor that Sahil is using is really apt in this moment, also bumper sticker versus complex.

We saw President Biden try to walk and chew gum this week.

He said this speech on democracy being a threat, but he also wants to talk about inflation and reproductive rights.

I've heard from really some Democrats, including the former campaign manager for Bernie Sanders who said he should have been talking about inflation.

This is what -- that should have been about.

What are you hearing from Republicans and Democrats?

SUSAN PAGE, Washington Bureau Chief, USA Today: This has been a complicated race, complicated because of the attacks on democracy, complicated because of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

But as we get in these final weeks, it has gone back to the fundamentals, to the basics, to the things that traditionally determine midterm elections, and that is the president's approval rating and how voters are feeling about the economy.

And on both of those fronts, that is accounting for these new Republican momentum, that has Republicans feeling pretty confident.

Republicans believe they are going to take the House.

The only question is by how much.

We will see if they are right.

And it is hard to predict the Senate but we do have races, like in New Hampshire, like in Colorado and in Washington State that Democrats did not think would be tight and that now look tight as you go into these last few days.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And, Jeff, what are you hearing from White House officials and from you sources you have covered, a bunch at White House's, including at one point, the Biden administration, the thinking behind the speech but also the impact and consequences of having a more complicated closing argument?

JEFF ZELENY: Look, it was a bit of deja vu hearing that speech, because I was in Philadelphia when he gave the speech in September, which was largely the same thing.

But, look, one speech is not going, in this day and age, sort of to grab everyone's attention.

So, I think, A, it was simple for the president to go to Union Station in Washington, which is not far from the White House, because he's limited in places where he can go across the country.

But we talk about closing arguments.

I think that may be a bit of a pass way to look at things because there are many arguments sort of happening at the same time.

He's on the West Coast talking about the econom, but he really was on Wednesday night talking to Democrats, trying to get the Democratic base sort of on his same anger level, I guess, and to sound the alarm about democracy because there are limited things he can talk about.

It is hard for him to talk about inflation.

But there is no question that the headwinds are blowing.

I talked to a Democratic campaign manager in a prominent House race this week who said I sure wish the election would have been last week.

SUSAN PAGE: Or September 8.

That would have been a great time for Democrats to have.

JEFF ZELENY: Well, for sure.

For sure.

So, you just get the sense that things are not moving in the right way for Democrats.

But I think from the president's point of view, he will be out on Saturday in Pennsylvania with former President Barack Obama.

Former President Trump will be there as well.

So, there are limited things that any president can do.

And my guess is that White House speechwriters are already thinking about the speech today after Barack Obama called it a shellacking in 2010, George Bush called it a thumping in 2006.

We'll see what President Biden calls.

SUSAN PAGE: But one thing about -- we focus on the horserace here, and especially a few days before the election.

How could we not?

But thinking about the president's speech about the attacks on democracy, I think there was a lot of criticism that wasn't as smart political speech to make at that moment.

It's not the strongest argument.

It's not focused on the issues that are driving voters but it's an issue that has been important to him from his first decision to run for this office.

It is an issue that means a lot to him.

So maybe sometimes you make a speech because you just think it is a message you ought to deliver, even if it is not the perfect moment politically to do so.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: I got the sense listening to it that he was trying to speak in some ways to history and trying to really sort of put his hand out and say, if this election night turns into election week, election month, if maybe we end up in another place where we are all arguing as a country, I think he was trying to say, let's try to not have political violence and calm it down.

But, of course, Republicans and some Democrats are saying that's off-base.

I want to come to you, Dave.

You said something kind of surprising to me and to our team, which is a big chunk of voters are still undecided, even at this very moment.

You think maybe that's being overlooked.

Please explain that.

Because t is four days away, we have heard so many arguments.

What is going on?

DAVE WASSERMAN: Yes.

In all of these polls of the hottest Senate and House races, there is still 5 or 7 percent of people who haven't tuned in to their Congressional vote choice.

And believe it or not, there are people who make up their minds the day before or day of the midterm elections.

And their decisions could vary by geography.

We're noticing that Democrats' numbers are holding up better relative to 2020 in red and purple states that have seen big fights over abortion, such as Michigan and Kansas and Pennsylvania, and perhaps New Hampshire, whereas Democrats are facing double trouble in blue states where they are double incumbents and control both federal and state government, places like New York and Oregon, California, even Connecticut and Rhode Island have House seats where they're at risk because voters are holding Democrats doubly responsible for everything they are dissatisfied with, not only pocketbook but crime and homelessness.

And abortion rights are not as under threat in those states.

So, that hasn't been as potent an argument for Democrats.

And, look, if your top issue is abortion or immigration, I can pretty much guarantee you are going to vote, and I can tell you with a high degree of certainty which party you're going to vote for.

But if you are still undecided at this point, you are looking at this choice through a pretty simple lens.

Am I feeling safe in my community and are things too expensive?

And Biden's approval rating on handling of the economy in most polls among independent voters has been in the mid to high 20s.

And so I still think Republicans have more upside with that cohort of persuadables who remain.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Interesting, very interesting.

And, Sahil, I want to come to you because you wrote an interesting story this week.

It was about the NAACP calling on radio stations to stop airing an ad by a conservative group, America First Legal.

It is accusing the left, quote, and some Democratic leaders for promoting, quote, what they say is racism against white people.

What more do we know about this ad and also what has come from the NAACP calling for these ads to be taken down?

SAHIL KAPUR: Well, firstly, Yamiche, on the second point, I checked in with my source before the show, and they mentioned that nine of those radio stations have agreed to take the ad down.

So, that letter by the NAACP has gotten some results.

But what you see there is an ad by a group led by a former Trump adviser who is known to be combative, very pugnacious, trying to escalate this racial rhetoric.

I think it is having an impact because race and attitudes towards race are probably the single biggest fault line in American politics, and it dates back to 2015 when the candidacy with Donald Trump was in part based on some rather explicit racial appeals, mainly to working-class white voters, that they had been forgotten, that they are being looked down upon in ways we have really seen before as a dog whistle.

And this represents an escalation of that.

This new ad explicitly accuses the administration of promoting racism against white people.

Now the facts in this ad were checked and they did not match up to reality, their claims made about the president and vice president that were false or taken out of context.

But regardless, this is something that certain figures on the right see as effective and a way to respond to the fact that Democrats too have, since about 2015-2016, been speaking a little bit more directly to disadvantaged and marginalized groups in this country, African-Americans, Latinos, and talking about structural racism.

Rather than responding to that by incorporating those arguments, Republicans, at least some of them have decided, if you are going to accuse us of being racist, we will accuse you of being racist against a different set of people.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Very interesting that they think this is going to be effective, which it might be effective.

Sahil, I also want to ask you, you're obviously - - when you are not in Georgia chasing candidates, you are in the Capitol building.

I have read a lot of stories about the jockeying that's taking place both on the Republican side with House speaker -- I should say, wanting to be House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but now, of course, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, making his decisions and Republicans making plans on what they might do in terms of launching investigations.

But I have also heard on the Democratic side with someone like Hakeem Jeffries sort of checking out the scenery to see what he might do if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leaves.

What are you hearing?

SAHIL KAPUR: Well, Yamiche, very likely next speaker for Republicans to take control of the House is Kevin McCarthy.

He is in line for this job.

He has spent the last two years basically making every decision on the basis of what is best for Republicans in this 2022 election and what is best for my prospects of becoming speaker of the House.

A Republican House, I would say a few things.

It's a Republican House and President Biden.

We're going to see a lot more brinkmanship on the basic functions of government.

These appropriations bill and government funding bills are going to become more contentious because Republicans I've talked to in the House are going to have demands.

They are going to want things on immigration and the border wall, they're going to spending cuts.

And they see issues like government funding and the debt limit as well, which is a much more potent weapon, potentially more dangerous, that that leads to brinkmanship, as leverage points for them to get what they want on a policy matter that they would not ordinarily be able to get through the normal legislative process.

We are expecting a lot of investigations of the Biden administration as well.

That is in the House of Representatives on the Republican side.

On the Democratic side, there is a big question of what the top three leaders, including Speaker Pelosi, do, especially if Democrats lose control of the House.

They are all in their 80s.

There has been a moment Democrats have been leading to a generational transition, and everyone has just been asking when it is going to happen.

It is only a matter of time.

And if Democrats lose the House, there is an expectation, some sources that I've talked to are expecting all of those three top Democrats to be pressured into stepping down and a new generation of Democratic leaders to rise to the top.

And the man who is most likely to rise to the top, according to the sources I've talked to, is Hakeem Jeffries.

He has positioned himself well for that job.

He's got support and respect from various sides of the caucus.

And in a transition like that, some of the Democrats I spoke to also said that those who are currently lower ranked than him are unlikely to try to shake the tree, unlikely to try to cause even more of a disruption than would already be created from someone like Speaker Pelosi, who has led the caucus for 20 years, stepping down.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And, Dave, briefly, are there any bright spots here for Democrats?

I mean, it's been a lot of sort of the momentum and the wind is at the back of the Republicans.

Is there anything you can say before I go back to the table about what sort of what Sahil was talking about, anything more you can say about what the polls are showing?

DAVE WASSERMAN: Well, it is fairly miraculous that Democrats are in the game in the Senate at all, given that President Biden is at a 42 or 43 percent approval rating nationally.

It is a testament to how weak Republican candidates are and how many liabilities they have in Georgia, and Arizona and New Hampshire.

And yet the House, Republicans are probably in the neighborhood of picking up between 15 and 30 House seats.

More than 25 or 30 would be a huge wave for Republicans, considering they are starting out from a higher floor than they did in 1994 or 2010.

They already have 213 House seats.

And yet, Democrats' best hope is probably to minimize losses to the teens and they have a good chance of holding onto seats in places like Grand Rapids, Michigan, Toledo, Ohio, even Alaska, because Republicans nominated a few very flawed and unpopular candidates in those races.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: It's very interesting.

And, Susan, I want to split my two minutes I have left here.

One I want to ask you about, Nancy Pelosi, you wrote the book.

There have been conspiracy theories about Paul Pelosi's attack but also there are questions about her future.

What can you say?

SUSAN PAGE: Well, in 2018, she was running to a challenge to her leadership.

She said she would only serve at maximum of two more times as leader of House Democrats, which means this is the end of her remarkable tenure as leading House Democrats.

So, I think that promise still holds, although she has been naturally reluctant to become an instant lame duck by talking about it.

And I think that was the case even before her husband was attacked in this horrific way in something that kind of caused concerns and qualms for every American to see political violence on either side as we saw there in San Francisco.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: And, Jeff, with the minute we have left, what is going on with former President Trump?

There is reporting that he is eyeing November 14th, or at least some time before December to announce his presidency?

What can you tell us?

Clearly, you have the answer.

JEFF ZELENY: At this point, it would be more of a surprise for him not to run because he has been inching ever close to it.

I was with him in Sioux City, Iowa, at a rally on Thursday.

And he said he's very, very, very probably going to do it, get ready, get ready.

So, look, he's expecting do it, trying to ride this Republican wave.

That is why he is holding four rallies in five days leading up to Election Day.

But he has something in common with President Biden.

He's not wanted in every place on the campaign trail either.

So, he is not really in the hottest battlegrounds.

But in terms of his own future, what he is trying to stop other Republicans from running against him or announcing.

But I'm not sure that's going to happen.

So, most interesting, look to Florida.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who is eyeing a trip to Iowa, I'm told as well.

So, keep an eye on all of that next week.

YAMICHE ALCINDOR: Very, very interesting.

Thanks so much to our panelists for joining us and for sharing your reporting.

And before we go, tune in Saturday to PBS News Weekend for a look at a swing California district that could determine which party controls and wins control of the House.

Thank you for joining us.

Good night from Washington.